Struggling with Normalcy Bias

Human psychology has always fascinated me. I love trying to understand why people act the way they do, especially if it makes no sense to me whatsoever. When someone is doing something crazy, it's always helpful to try and figure out which one of us is really off base. For many years, I've thought it was just me. My family background makes it totally appropriate for me to feel a need to garden, keep a pantry, prepare for the worst - be that snow, floods, or, well, economic collapse. For many years, my idea of economic collapse was losing my job or my husband needing a new transmission on the old John Deere!

So when I discovered this new term the other day, I was delighted to finally have a name for what I'd been seeing. The term is "normalcy bias". According to Wikipedia,

The normalcy bias refers to an extreme mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred that it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.

Well, shoot! The whole danged country's got normalcy bias!!! What was I thinking! It's NOT just me!

Okay, I know you're laughing. But look at these figures. This is not to spread gloom and doom, but to help you see what I am starting to see.

 *chart from Charlie McGrath's website,  Wide Awake News

 

Now, with those kinds of statistics, why in the world are we super-shopping at Wal-Mart? What in the world are we thinking? And right there, in the above paragraph in the answer - we're NOT thinking. We are walking way on the other side of the room, as far as we can get from the elephant in the corner, hoping someone else will figure out how to get him outside so we don't have to do it. We, my friends, are suffering from "normalcy bias".

So,  how do we learn to face what is happening around us?

1. Come to grips with the fact that our economic future is uncertain. Really, it has always been uncertain. A sudden illness, accident, job loss or other such circumstance could throw any family who is unprepared into chaos. The state of the economy is just another potential fire to put out.

2. Face the reality of your personal situation. Maybe you don't feel that you have enough money to buy precious metals, or even stock a pantry. Assess your financial and personal situation calmly and see what you do have in terms of assets and how you can best apply them to preparing for uncertainty.  Can you buy a few extra items to put in the pantry? Can you buy an ounce or two of silver every week? Start where you are with what you have. Try not to think about what has to be done - just think about what you can do, and remember, take baby steps.

3. As much as you can, over-prepare. Normalcy bias assures us that everything will be just fine. Perhaps, but I wouldn't bet my life or that of my family on it. A couple of bottles of water and some microwavable, off the shelf soups are not enough. But again, do what you can with what you have - any preparation is better than none.

4. Don't become obsessed with this. No matter what happens, it is not likely to be the end of the world.

Think of it this way - if a crisis comes - in whatever form - you're ready. If it never happens, you're ahead in terms of investments, money saved in food and so on. The sun will eventually come out again, no matter how long it rains!
  
Lighten up a little, but remember these predictions!

Top 10 Predictions for 2011

1.  The Bible will still have all the answers.

2.  Prayer will still be the most powerful thing on Earth.

3.  The Holy Spirit will still move.

4.  God will still honor the praises of His people

5.  There will still be God-anointed preaching.

6.  There will still be singing of praise to God.

7.  God will still pour out blessings upon His people.

8.  There will still be room at the Cross.

9.  Jesus will still love you.

10.  Jesus will still save the lost when they come to Him.  

Isn't it great to remember who is really in control, and that the Word of the Lord endures forever!

Grandma's Top 5 List of Things to do in 2011

"Grandma, all this stuff in the news makes me as nervous as a cat in a room full of rockin' chairs. What can we do to protect ourselves if things get really bad. I mean the news says everything's getting better, but a lot of our friends aren't able to find jobs and a lot of them are on food stamps. What can we do?"

Glad you asked, Honey! Here's my list of Grandma's Top 5 List of Things to Do in 2011

5.  Buy more canning jars and lids. The last time I checked, canning jars were still under $10 for a case of 12. No, this is not cheap. But yes, you will be happy to have them if jars become scarce - and they will. Even in the last couple of years, it is not uncommon for the big stores to run out of jars during canning season. They never go bad and if you are careful with them, they last a long time. Be on the lookout for used jars in excellent condition (no chips, cracks, dings) at yard sales and auctions. While you're at the auction, keep an eye out for good books on canning & preserving. Here's a link for a free e-book on canning & preserving to start your collection.

Canning and Food Storage

4. Grow a medicine chest of medicinal herbs in pots or in a raised bed.For some great ideas and free learning tools, click here:

The Herb Mentor

3. Start a vegetable garden. Yes, you can grow food anywhere, even if it means incorporating it into your landscaping. And if you don't have a place where you can plant an actual garden, grow some things in pots. It will make you feel good to nurture something and you will learn how to be a little less dependant of the grocery store.  Just beginning? Take a look at these e-books to get you started.

Raised Bed Gardens

Container Gardening, Part 1

Container Gardening, Part 2

2. Buy silver. The spot price for silver as I write this is $29.64 per ounce. If you can only buy one ounce per month, buy it and put it away. One a week is better. Do not buy paper silver certificates - buy physical silver. If you can afford to buy gold, that is a good place to store wealth, but for everyday purchases, silver is the precious metal of choice.

1. Buy food. No matter how much money you have now, or think you may have later, if there is no food to be had, you'll still be hungry. Learn now how to stock a pantry.  Here's a helpful chart  to get you started.

3 Month Food Supply

 

We've touched on buying food for storage before in the blog, and we will cover all of these things in detail over the next few months. But time is running short. Some experts say 6 to 36 months. I read an article tonight that said March 2011 would be the beginning of the crash. March 1st is only 8 weeks away, friends. I'd rather be ready on March 1st and have nothing happen than keep procrastinating and be in really bad shape with no preparations made if ......

And if things improve, the sun comes out again and life is economically delightful, what have you lost? Not a thing, and you actually have gained skills, assets and the confidence to know that you have taken the steps you could take to protect yourself and your family from hurt & harm.

Not convinced? Take a few minutes and watch these videos.

A New Year - A New Life

It's been a little over a year since I started this blog. I have posted here sporadically, unsure of the direction I should take. My natural inclination is to talk about the things that I love - my family, the farm, the gardens. I did post about some of that, but I also made hesitant, self-conscious moves toward the political arena, an area that has always been foreign to me. Like many "farm-wives", I did not concern myself with politics, nor did the topic interest me in any way. I had children to raise, animals and gardens to tend and a family to care for. I just did not have time to "fool around" with politics.

Then about a year and a half ago, politics became a part of my life as I watched my country fall into an economic slump unlike anything we'd ever seen before. After much study, it finally became obvious to me - this country - and her people - is in big trouble, and not too many people are even really interested.

There is a huge percentage of our population that just does not want to think about how bad the economy really is, and thinking about what to do about it is even worse.

There is a term used on the internet - "sheeple". This is a derisive term used for people who just blindly plod along, following the leader (shepherd) without really having any idea of where they are being led. The implication is that "sheeple" are just too stupid to do anything different. Too stupid to ask questions, too stupid to consider change, too stupid to stop following the leader as he steers us toward a cliff from which we cannot retreat.

I would like to suggest that the majority of people in this country are neither stupid nor cowardly, but rather complacent. We have been taught for many years that we live in the best country in the world, that our leaders are good and honest people with the best intentions for our best, over all good.

Most of us know better than that now.

Yet, we still like to believe the news when it says that the economy is on an upswing, the recession is in recovery and things are going to be just peachy, right around the next quarter. I can't say with 100% certainty that this is not the case, but it really does not seem likely. My Bible does not tell me that the world will end in 2012, but it does tell me that there will come a time that sounds very much like the time in which we now live.

So how do we cope with this? How to we learn what is really coming and when? How can we prepare for a "time such as this"?

Many of us do not have the luxury of living in the country as we do, where a garden and everyday food production are just a part of every day life. Many of us just can't do the physical work we need to do to be self-sufficient the way we could in our younger years. How about us? Do we just stand by and wait for the country to fall to rack & ruin, the economy to swirl madly in a downward spiral, taking us with it?

So this blog will begin to change from a quaint little blog about country things into somewhat of a diary as one country woman, one grandmother, begins her journey toward understanding how to survive and thrive in the current and future economy, to try to learn which political pitfalls are present or presenting and to get through these next few years in comfort and prosperity - not just existing, but doing very nicely, thank you.

I hope you join me on this journey - it should certainly be interesting.

Brrrr! It's Getting Cold Outside!

Winter is coming, and here on the farm we are just starting to "winterize". We are very late in doing this - most of these things should have been done back in the late fall, about the time of the first real frost. Time and work gets away from us all sometimes, and we are just now starting to do the things that are critical.

A little over a year ago, we installed water lines from the house to the barn. Then last spring, we put in water lines from the house to the gardens, and while we did get most of them covered, there was still a hydrant and a little line left that was not completed. With the weather getting really cold in the last few days, we were reminded that we'd better get that done!



Cliff laying out water lines to the barn in November 2009

The new hydrant finally
 finished in November 2010!

Another thing we intend to look into is buying a vent free propane heater. These are great for when the electricity goes out during a storm. Even if you heat with a wood furnace, as we do, the fan that circulates the het through the house depends on electricity. So while the area where the stove sits will be warm with or without power, the rest of the hose stays cold. A vent free gas heater would solve that problem. It would also be nice to have one in the workshop and one in the pantry, where the water pipes come into the house - an area that has been known to freeze on really, really cold days.

What do you need to do to prepare for winter? Do you need a cover for your strawberries? Mulch on the garden? Insulation in some of the animal housing? Drain pipes or hoses? How about antifreeze in your vehicles? Oh, yes, and don't forget to store a few jugs of drinking water, candles and alternative forms of poers for the winter storms!

It's not to late to get settled in for the winter, but don't wait too much longer! You don't want to be one of those poor souls looking for water or heat during a blizzard! In Virginia, we started getting snow in early December last year, so be prepared!